Trends for 2009: #10. Uncertainty

That's a shocker! The only thing we can be certain of in 2009 is uncertainty itself.

There are lots of predictions about when the economy will make a comeback. I even heard an economist on a radio interview this morning say that "Tax cuts will only allow people to put money into savings in preparation for the coming recession." So, was this guy not sure if we are in a recession yet? Predictions seem to range from Q3 2009 to 3-5 years from now to get the economy back into a growth mode.

Regardless, my guess is that energy prices will rebound hard and fast as soon as the economy demonstrates any desire at all to making a comeback. That could beat the economy back down all on its own. The energy companies have all pulled back hard on their projects (i.e. drilling). But, there is a limited supply of oil and gas. So, when the economy rallies, and manufacturers run out out to rev up their factories, and plastic machines, and consumers start to buy cars again, the demand for oil will go rocketing up world-wide. Yet, we won't have the supply. Ergo, we'll zip back to $1.50 / liter gas and the economy will fall over again.

What's a marketer to do? Admittedly, this kind of rings like many of the other recommendations I've made already:

• Adopt a long-term low-cost strategy.
• Get back to the basics on your Marketing strategy.
  
• Narrow your focus.

... and finally (as a bonus almost) - Compartmentalize and control what you can. Compartmentalize is a concept I picked up at a Dale Carnegie course. Quite simply, it means worry about and take actions on those things that you can. For instance, you can't control if the economy sucks, and your boss nukes your advertising budget. You can control how you respond and the actions you can take like:

1. Ensure you have a great marketing vision and strategy that is compelling,
2. Build a solid advertising strategy and effective budget by reallocating spend,
   
3. Attempt to sell your boss on why your budget should be restored,
4. Make other plans to advertise more efficiently and effectively through new media,
5. Etc. (i.e. the "Get back to the basics" type of stuff).