During the Great Depression, the "new media" of radio took off. In fact, in every recession since then Radio advertising has fared very well. Expect similar this time around - except in Radio's place, you will see innovations and growth in online advertising.
Now, that said, if you are a Publisher or an Advertising Network it isn't time to start counting your coins yet. While online advertising will grow in 2009, budgets will still be tight, and it may not even grow as much as it did in 2008. Relative to other advertising media however, it will be glowing. Why? Well, the equation might look something like this for an Advertiser:
This Year's advertising budget = Last Year's Budget / 2.
Where do I put that little bit of money?
- Print 2009 = Print 2008 x 1/3
- TV 2009 = TV 2008 x 1/2
- Radio 2009 = Radio 2008 x 3/4
- Out of Home 2009 = Out of Home 2008 x 2/3
- Online 2009 = Online 2008 x 1.1
Okay ... the math may not make sense, and those numbers are all just a WAG, but the concept stands. Budgets will get cut, and the increase in online spending is going to come at the expense of other media.
What online advertising is going to grow? All of it. Paid search (probably more than the rest), Banner Ads, Video, Online Games and Contests, etc., etc., etc.. Some people are forecasting that this will lead to an overall increase in Cost Per Acquisition (CPA). Maybe, but maybe not. The content and opportunities on the internet are almost limitless, but there are only a small handfull of really popular sites. The CPM (thousand impressions) or CPC (click) will increase on those sites. But as an Advertiser, if you focus on conversions and use an outlet like an Advertising Network that leverages the power of the long-tail, then you may actually come out with a low and stable CPA.
What's a Marketer to do in 2009?
- Do review your traditional advertising spend VERY closely. What worked? What didn't? What is dubious? Slash and burn anything but that which worked. Figure out how you can build on those things that worked.
- Do online advertising. Look at how you can be creative with it. Also, look at how you can integrate with traditional advertising that is working. Similarly, look at how you can integrate it with Direct Marketing opportunities.
- Focus on your Cost Per Acquisition. Use analytics and look at all of your online advertising and its performance (including creative, message, placement, etc.). Use this information to tune your ads and your media buys in order to lower your CPA. To lower your media buys, look at options like bulk buys, advertising networks, or even changing the type or mix of ads you are running entirely (e.g. maybe increase your search spend, and reduce your banner ad spend).
Will I be right? The year will tell!
- Follow this blog and watch for the next marketing trends I'm forecasting for 2009.
- Feel free to contact Market GoGo to discuss this further.
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